You're basically comparing Obama's convention peak to McCain's convention peak.  We've never had back-to-back conventions before, so looking at past elections isn't terribly helpful.

It's a bounce; bounces fade.  Don't worry about it.

I am not really surprised .

The trends favor democrats but John Mccain's chances improved when Obama won the nomination and his chances became greater when Obama didn't pick Hillary Clinton.

I was always of the opinion that an integral part of Mccain's path to victory included Clinton not being on the ticket .

Its hard to go against a man almost all democrats have praised all through out their careers , tying him to Bush is not a strategy that would be enough because I personally don't think many folks would buy it , at least not enough to go over the finish line.

That said  the election is too close to call , it has always been a 50/50 election , I always said there won't be much of an expansion of the electoral map .

Whoever wins OH and CO would win the election , if I was a betting man I would be holding on to my Mccain chips..

The person impersonating Palin will need to be a young, attractive attacker because that is probably how she will engage Biden in the debate after seeing some past Palin debates.  DSW is the only one who seems to fit that mold though I guess Barbara Boxer could as well if you consider California to be Western under your definition.

Isn't Murtha pretty close to McCain, though he's not a Senator.  He seems to resemble McCain the most in terms of style and presentation.

In what way is Lieberman a mirror of Biden. I think the pubs would go with someone incredibly aggressive who knows how to hit the soundbite fairly well.